A new Somali Public Agenda survey reveals strong public support for one-person-one-vote elections, but also shows that security, political stability, transparency and trust in institutions remain central to Somalia’s democratic transition.
MOGADISHU, Somalia (Somali Report) - Somalia’s political transition is confronting a difficult reality: citizens broadly want democracy, but they do not see democracy as separate from the country’s long-running struggle with insecurity, political fragmentation and institutional mistrust.
That is the central message of a new survey by Somali Public Agenda (SPA) and the Somali Dialogue Platform. Conducted between May 30 and June 15, 2026, the study interviewed 928 people in Mogadishu and the capitals of Puntland, Jubaland, Southwest State, Galmudug and Hirshabelle. While the research is not nationally representative—it excludes rural communities and areas outside the six selected urban centres—it offers an important glimpse into how ordinary Somalis are navigating the country’s contested constitutional and electoral transition.
The headline finding appears straightforward: 88 percent of respondents consider it important for Somalia’s next president to be elected through one-person-one-vote elections. Yet the deeper story is more complicated. When direct elections are weighed against peace, stability, term limits or other democratic principles, support becomes much less absolute.
This tension exposes one of the biggest challenges facing Somalia’s political transition. Citizens want a more democratic system, but they also fear the consequences of political competition becoming destabilising.
The survey finds that women are consistently more likely than men to prioritise peace and stability when democratic objectives come into conflict. More politically engaged respondents, meanwhile, are somewhat more willing to accept trade-offs in favour of other democratic principles. Most strikingly, perceptions of President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s mandate strongly influence political preferences. A majority of respondents believe the presidential term has already ended, although views differ sharply by location. In Garowe and Kismayo, the belief that the mandate has expired is particularly strong, while fewer than half of respondents in Mogadishu and Dhusamareb hold that view.
The significance goes beyond constitutional interpretation. SPA finds that people who believe the presidential mandate has expired are more likely to prioritise term limits, press freedom and timely political transition. Those who believe the mandate continues are more inclined to prioritise stability and government authority. In other words, democratic principles are being interpreted through the political crisis itself.
This helps explain an apparent contradiction in Somali public opinion. Citizens strongly support transparent government communication, yet press freedom receives much weaker support when presented as competing with peace, stability or the dignity of political leaders. Nearly three-quarters prioritise stability over press freedom in one of the survey's scenarios. At the same time, 62 percent favour transparent government communication over maintaining political stability.
The distinction is revealing. Somalis appear to want government accountability and openness, but many do not necessarily regard an independent and critical press as the principal mechanism for achieving them. That represents a significant challenge for democratic consolidation because transparency without independent scrutiny can leave executive power insufficiently checked.
There is, however, an important area of consensus: meritocracy. Nearly all respondents favour choosing politically qualified leaders regardless of clan identity. Support for government transparency is also relatively consistent across political divides. These findings suggest that some democratic values remain relatively insulated from the current political contest, while issues such as term limits, electoral timing and press freedom have become politically polarised.
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Trust in institutions presents another complicated picture. Confidence in election management varies significantly according to location. In Dhusamareb, respondents express greater confidence in the Federal Government than their own state authorities. In Kismayo and Garowe, the opposite is true. In Mogadishu, Baidoa and Jowhar, differences between federal and local authorities are not statistically significant. The implication is clear: there is no single Somali consensus on which level of government is best placed to manage elections. Trust is shaped by local political realities.
Yet the strongest confidence-building mechanism identified by the survey is particularly significant: Somali civil society. Some 68.4 percent of respondents say civil society involvement would increase their confidence in the legitimacy of elections, compared with 62.8 percent for the United Nations, 56.1 percent for Türkiye, 55.4 percent for IGAD and 54.4 percent for the African Union.
That finding challenges the assumption that electoral legitimacy in Somalia must primarily be constructed through government institutions or international actors. It suggests that trusted Somali organisations can play a crucial role in monitoring, validating and communicating the credibility of elections.
Perhaps the most important finding, however, concerns what citizens actually want their political leaders to talk about. Security and counterterrorism operations dominate: 65.5 percent identify them as the issue requiring greater openness and transparency. Elections and political processes come a distant second at 18.9 percent, while public spending and budgeting attract 10.6 percent. Security is the leading priority in every surveyed location.
This is the thread connecting the entire report. For many Somalis, democracy is desirable, but it cannot be detached from the basic question of security. Citizens are not necessarily choosing security instead of democracy; rather, they appear to see security as the condition under which democratic politics can function.
That should shape Somalia’s political debate. The danger is that political elites interpret public concern about stability as permission to postpone democratic reform indefinitely. The survey does not support such a conclusion. Instead, it points to a more demanding task: designing a political transition that makes elections, constitutional legitimacy, security and inclusion reinforce rather than undermine one another.
Somalia’s citizens have given politicians a clear message. They want a vote. They want accountable government. They want qualified leaders and greater transparency. But they also want political competition that does not threaten peace.
The challenge for Somalia’s leaders is therefore not simply to hold elections. It is to build enough trust in the rules, institutions and political settlement surrounding those elections that citizens can believe democracy will deliver both representation and stability.
About the Author
Ahmed Omar is a senior journalist for Somali Report, based in Mogadishu. He has two decades of experience reporting on Somalia for international and local media. He covers politics, security, governance, business, trade, economic developments and regional affairs.
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