Who controls the Nile — and can Trump prevent an Egypt–Ethiopia Dam crisis?
The move comes after Ethiopia officially inaugurated the massive GERD in September 2025, marking a historic moment for the country.
Mogadishu (Somali Report) - The long-running dispute over the Nile River has entered a new phase as U.S. President Donald Trump signals a renewed push to mediate between Egypt, Sudan, and Ethiopia over the controversial Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD).
In January, Trump formally informed Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi that Washington would once again attempt to broker a deal over the Nile’s waters — a conflict that has simmered for more than a decade and now carries growing geopolitical implications for the Horn of Africa.
The move comes after Ethiopia officially inaugurated the massive GERD in September 2025, marking a historic moment for the country. Built on the Blue Nile, the dam is the largest hydroelectric project in Africa and a centerpiece of Ethiopia’s ambitions to transform its economy through electricity generation and industrial growth.
For Addis Ababa, the project represents national pride and self-reliance. Much of the dam’s funding came from Ethiopian citizens through bonds and donations, making it a symbol of unity in a country often divided by political and ethnic tensions.
But for Egypt, the GERD is viewed as an existential threat.
The Nile provides more than 90% of Egypt’s freshwater, sustaining agriculture, industry, and the lives of over 100 million people. Egyptian officials fear that Ethiopia’s ability to control water flows — particularly during drought years — could devastate the country’s already fragile water security.
“Without water, there is no Egypt,” Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty said recently during a visit to Kenya, describing the issue as a matter of national survival.
Sudan, which sits between the two countries along the Nile, has also expressed concerns about water management and dam safety, although its position has shifted over time depending on political dynamics in Khartoum.
Trump’s decision to re-engage in the dispute is notable because previous U.S. mediation efforts collapsed in 2020 after Ethiopia withdrew from talks facilitated by Washington and the World Bank.
At the time, Addis Ababa accused the United States of siding too closely with Egypt. Trump himself sparked controversy when he suggested Egypt could “blow up” the dam if negotiations failed.
Now, analysts say Washington’s approach will determine whether new negotiations succeed or deepen mistrust.
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Egypt remains one of the United States’ closest allies in the Middle East and North Africa, and Cairo plays a key role in regional diplomacy — particularly in negotiations surrounding Gaza and Israel.
Some observers believe Trump’s renewed interest in the Nile dispute may partly reflect his desire to strengthen ties with President el-Sisi while advancing broader U.S. regional interests.
However, Ethiopia has repeatedly insisted that the dam is a sovereign project and rejects what it sees as outdated colonial-era water agreements that granted Egypt and Sudan the majority of the Nile’s waters.
Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has framed the GERD as essential for lifting millions of Ethiopians out of poverty. Once fully operational, the dam is expected to generate more than 6,000 megawatts of electricity — enough to power large parts of East Africa and boost regional energy exports.
Domestically, support for the project is overwhelming across Ethiopia’s political spectrum.
At the same time, tensions across the Horn of Africa are rising. Ethiopia faces internal instability and fears of renewed conflict in regions such as Tigray, while neighboring Sudan remains locked in a devastating civil war.
These overlapping crises have created a complex geopolitical landscape in which the Nile dispute could become even more volatile.
Some experts argue that successful mediation will require incentives rather than pressure. Potential proposals include development financing for Ethiopia’s electricity infrastructure and guarantees for access to regional ports, alongside binding agreements on water flows that protect Egypt and Sudan.
For now, the key question is whether Washington intends to act as a neutral mediator or simply reinforce its alliance with Egypt.
If diplomacy fails, the consequences could be severe. The Nile dispute has long been described as one of Africa’s most dangerous potential flashpoints — one where water, national pride, and regional power politics collide.
With the dam now operational and tensions rising, the stakes have never been higher.
About the Author
Osman Hassan is a Senior Editor at the Somali Report based in Nairobi with over 15 years of experience in journalism. He has worked with local and international media outlets in Somalia and is an award-winning journalist. His reporting focuses on politics, security, and regional affairs in the Horn of Africa.