As Ethiopia heads to the 2026 general election, escalating armed conflict, deep political fragmentation, and contested electoral institutions are raising critical questions about the credibility of the vote and the future of governance under Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed.
Abiy Ahmed became Ethiopia’s Prime Minister in 2018 during a major political transition promising reform and change. Photo Illustration/Getty
Addis Ababa (Somali Report) – On June 1, more than 54 million Ethiopians are expected to vote in the country's seventh national election since the adoption of the federal constitution in 1995. On paper, the figures suggest a vibrant democratic exercise: over 10,400 candidates, dozens of registered political parties, and more than 52,000 polling stations spread across one of Africa’s most populous states.
Yet behind the numbers lies a far more complicated reality.
The election comes at a moment when Ethiopia is grappling with armed conflicts in Amhara and Oromia, political uncertainty in Tigray, growing regional tensions in the Horn of Africa, and mounting criticism from opposition groups that argue the political environment is neither free nor fair.
For Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and the ruling Prosperity Party (PP), the vote is expected to reinforce political stability and provide a renewed mandate for governance. For critics, however, the election risks becoming another chapter in Ethiopia’s long history of elections whose outcomes appear largely predetermined.
Whether viewed as a democratic exercise or a managed political process, the June vote represents a pivotal moment for a country still struggling to define its post-war political order.
A Familiar Pattern
Ethiopia has held six general elections since the introduction of ethnic federalism in 1995 under the Ethiopian People's Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF). In every election, the ruling establishment has retained power.
The most competitive contest is widely considered to have been the 2005 election, which produced disputed results, mass protests, and a subsequent government crackdown.
The elections of 2010 and 2015 saw overwhelming victories for the EPRDF, while the 2021 election, conducted under Abiy Ahmed’s Prosperity Party during the Tigray war, ended in another landslide victory for the incumbent.
The upcoming election appears likely to produce a similar outcome.
The Prosperity Party is running unopposed in 64 parliamentary constituencies and 284 regional council seats. Voting will not take place in all 38 constituencies of Tigray and in eight constituencies in Amhara due to security concerns, reducing the number of federal seats being contested from 547 to 501.
Many analysts argue that the combination of conflict, opposition fragmentation, and institutional advantages enjoyed by the ruling party makes meaningful electoral competition difficult.
Opposition Claims of an Uneven Playing Field
One of the central criticisms surrounding the election comes from opposition parties that say they have been unable to compete on equal terms.
The National Election Board of Ethiopia (NEBE) reports that 42 political organizations, including parties and coalitions, are participating in the election. Yet opposition groups argue that legal restrictions, security concerns, registration requirements, and administrative hurdles have weakened their ability to campaign.
The Oromo Liberation Front (OLF), Oromo Federalist Congress (OFC), Ogaden National Liberation Front (ONLF), and other opposition actors have all raised concerns over political space and access.
According to opposition leaders, security conditions have prevented them from opening offices, organizing rallies, and fielding candidates across large parts of the country. OLF officials have stated that only their Addis Ababa office remains fully operational, a dramatic reduction from previous years.
Several parties have also complained about candidate registration requirements tied to national digital identification systems. The Ethiopian National Unity Party (ENUP) said its list of candidates dropped dramatically because many members lacked digital IDs, while the Freedom and Equality Party (FEP) reported similar difficulties.
The Coalition for Ethiopian Unity (CEU) alleged that hundreds of candidates were excluded due to technical failures within the digital registration system. The NEBE rejects these claims, maintaining that only a small number of candidates were affected and that the system functioned impartially.
The dispute reflects a broader disagreement between the Board and opposition groups over the integrity of the electoral process.
Security and the Geography of Voting
Regional map of Ethiopia, Open Street Map/TNH
Perhaps the most significant challenge facing the election is security.
Armed conflict continues in several parts of Ethiopia, particularly in Amhara and Oromia. The result is an election in which the ability to vote often depends on geography.
In Amhara, fighting between federal forces and Fano militias has intensified over the past year. According to conflict monitoring organizations, Fano activity increased significantly between March and May 2026, with clashes reported across central and southern Amhara.
The Amhara Fano National Movement publicly declared the election illegitimate and warned citizens against participating. Reports indicate that election facilities and personnel have become targets during the conflict.
The National Election Board has already acknowledged that voting cannot be conducted in at least eight Amhara constituencies because of insecurity.
In Oromia, the conflict between government forces and the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) continues to affect large areas of Ethiopia’s most populous region. Opposition groups argue that insecurity has restricted campaigning and voter outreach.
Meanwhile, Tigray remains entirely excluded from the vote, as it was in 2021.
The exclusion means millions of Tigrayans will once again have no direct participation in a national election, underscoring the political fragmentation that remains after the devastating 2020–2022 war.
The Debate Over Electoral Credibility
The National Election Board insists that preparations have been extensive and that conditions exist to conduct a credible election.
More than 54 million voters have registered. Over 20,000 university students, 28,000 internally displaced persons, and more than 126,000 military personnel have been registered through special mechanisms.
Close to 170 civil society organizations have been accredited to participate in the election process, while more than 1,800 journalists have received reporting credentials.
Observers from the African Union (AU) and the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) are expected to monitor the vote.
However, critics point to several concerns.
The Ethiopian Human Rights Commission reported that some polling stations were located near police stations, military facilities, and other sites prohibited under electoral regulations.
Opposition parties have also challenged the Board's security assessments. While a government-led assessment concluded that most constituencies were suitable for elections, a separate assessment involving civil society representatives reportedly found that many surveyed areas were not conducive to voting.
The NEBE dismissed those findings, arguing that the sample size was insufficient.
The disagreement highlights a wider debate over whether electoral administration in Ethiopia can be viewed as independent from the broader political environment.
Allegations Against the Electoral Board
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Voters queue at a polling station during Ethiopia’s parliamentary and regional elections in Beshasha, Ethiopia, June 21, 2021. REUTERS
Some of the strongest criticisms have focused on the role of the National Election Board itself.
Opposition parties have accused the Board of operating too closely with federal authorities, a charge the institution denies.
Critics point to decisions involving party registration, including the exclusion of the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) from the election while allowing the registration of alternative political actors in Tigray.
Opposition figures also allege that registration requirements involving birth certificates and national identification documents disproportionately affect rural communities and internally displaced persons.
In Somali Regional State, critics allege that federal and regional authorities have sought to weaken the influence of the ONLF by supporting rival political structures more closely aligned with the ruling party. These allegations remain disputed and have been rejected by government officials.
What remains clear is that confidence in electoral institutions varies sharply across Ethiopia's political landscape.
The Regional Dimension
The election is unfolding amid a volatile regional environment.
Relations between Ethiopia and Eritrea remain tense following disagreements over the implementation of the Pretoria Agreement and the future of Tigray.
Political tensions have also persisted over Ethiopia's pursuit of Red Sea access and its controversial memorandum of understanding with Somaliland, which triggered diplomatic friction with Somalia.
Meanwhile, Sudan has accused Ethiopia of involvement in incidents connected to Sudan’s ongoing civil war, allegations Addis Ababa denies.
The result is a situation in which Ethiopia's domestic political developments are increasingly intertwined with wider regional security dynamics.
Diplomats from the United States, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Israel, and the United Arab Emirates have all emphasized the importance of stability in Ethiopia during recent engagements with Ethiopian leaders.
Many regional observers fear that renewed conflict in northern Ethiopia could have consequences extending far beyond the country's borders.
The Constitutional Question
For some analysts, the election is about more than parliamentary seats.
It is also about the future structure of the Ethiopian state.
Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s political philosophy of Medemer has often been associated with stronger national integration and greater centralization. Critics argue this could weaken Ethiopia’s ethnic federal system, while supporters contend that stronger institutions are necessary to preserve national unity.
The National Dialogue Commission, launched in 2022, is expected to address some of the country's most contentious constitutional questions, including federalism, political representation, and governance structures.
Some opposition figures fear that a decisive electoral victory for the Prosperity Party could be used to justify significant constitutional reforms without broad political consensus.
Government supporters reject those concerns, arguing that constitutional discussions should take place through established democratic institutions.
Regardless of perspective, the debate over federalism remains one of the most consequential issues shaping Ethiopia’s political future.
Abiy Ahmed and the Politics of Transformation
Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed greets members of the Ethiopian diaspora at an event in Washington, D.C., in July 2018. Mike Theiler/Reuters
At the center of the election stands Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed.
The Nobel Peace Prize laureate entered office in 2018 amid enormous domestic and international optimism. His early reforms, peace agreement with Eritrea, and promises of political liberalization generated widespread support.
Eight years later, assessments of his leadership are sharply divided.
Supporters credit him with preserving state authority amid multiple crises and pursuing ambitious national development projects.
Critics paint a very different picture.
In a recent analysis published by the Journal of Democracy, commentator Martin Plaut argued that Abiy increasingly governs through a highly personalized political vision. Plaut characterized Ethiopia’s elections as increasingly performative exercises and suggested that the prime minister's ambitions have eclipsed democratic accountability.
Such assessments remain contested, but they reflect a broader debate about the concentration of power and the future trajectory of Ethiopia's political system.
What Happens After the Vote?
Few observers expect a surprise outcome.
The Prosperity Party enters the election with organizational advantages, extensive national reach, and limited competition in many constituencies.
Yet the significance of the election may lie less in who wins than in what follows.
Armed conflicts remain unresolved. Tigray remains politically unsettled. Opposition parties continue to question the fairness of the political environment. Constitutional debates remain unresolved. Regional tensions persist.
The election may provide a renewed mandate for the government, but it is unlikely to resolve the deeper disputes over federalism, representation, security, and state authority that continue to shape Ethiopia’s future.
For supporters of the government, June 1 may represent continuity and stability.
For critics, it risks becoming another example of electoral participation without meaningful competition.
Either way, the election will serve as an important measure of where Ethiopia stands nearly three decades after adopting multiparty politics—and where it may be headed next.
About the Author
Mike Manyibe is a regional journalist at the Somali Report, specialising in geopolitics, security, and foreign affairs across the Horn of Africa and the Red Sea region.
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