Al-Shabaab remains Somalia’s most powerful non-state armed group and the world’s deadliest Al-Qaeda affiliate, with more than 2,300 political violence events recorded in Somalia since January 2026, ACLED says.
MOGADISHU, Somalia (Somali Report) — Al-Shabaab remains Somalia’s most powerful non-state armed group and the deadliest Al-Qaeda affiliate in the world, according to a new assessment by the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data (ACLED) project.
ACLED said the Al-Qaeda-linked group continues to wage a long-running insurgency in Somalia, maintaining control or significant influence over large areas of rural central and southern Somalia despite sustained military operations by government forces and their international partners.
More than 2,300 political violence events involving Al-Shabaab have been recorded in Somalia since the beginning of 2026, ACLED said. The figure represents nearly half of all political violence events globally this year linked to Al-Qaeda-affiliated groups, highlighting the scale and persistence of the Somali insurgency.
Lower Shabelle has emerged as the region with the highest concentration of Al-Shabaab-related violence in Somalia since the start of the year, according to the assessment.
The group has also retained significant influence across rural areas of central and southern Somalia, where it has developed economic and administrative networks that allow it to sustain its operations and exert authority over local communities.
ACLED said Al-Shabaab continues to generate substantial revenues through networks operating across Somalia and the wider region. While some of its economic activities inside the capital Mogadishu have weakened, the group's broader financial infrastructure remains an important source of resilience.
The assessment also warned that changes in international support for Somalia's security operations could create new opportunities for Al-Shabaab.
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ACLED pointed to the US decision to end financial and logistical support for the United Nations Support Office in Somalia in December 2026, saying the move could threaten the sustainability of the African Union's peacekeeping mission in the country.
A reduction in the capacity of the African Union mission could provide Al-Shabaab with an opportunity to regain territory previously lost to government forces and increase pressure on government-held urban centres in 2027, ACLED warned.
The assessment comes as Somalia continues efforts to strengthen its security forces and expand government control over areas previously held or contested by Al-Shabaab. The group has faced military pressure in recent years, but has demonstrated an ability to adapt, maintain rural influence and carry out attacks against government, military and civilian targets.
ACLED's findings also present Al-Shabaab as an example of the broader transformation of Al-Qaeda's global network over the past 25 years since the September 11, 2001 attacks in the United States.
Rather than functioning primarily as a centrally controlled organisation with a single geographic base, Al-Qaeda has increasingly operated through affiliated groups embedded in local conflicts across different countries, ACLED said.
The assessment underscores the continuing importance of Somalia to Al-Qaeda's global network, with Al-Shabaab's sustained operational capacity and territorial influence making it the network's most violent affiliate.
For Somalia, the findings highlight the challenges facing the government as it seeks to consolidate security gains while international military and financial support for the country's security architecture faces an uncertain future.
About the Author
Ahmed Omar is a senior journalist for Somali Report, based in Mogadishu. He has two decades of experience reporting on Somalia for international and local media. He covers politics, security, governance, business, trade, economic developments and regional affairs.
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